Will Turkey Never Be an EU Member Due to Its Bordering Countries?

The question of whether Turkey will ever become an EU member has been a topic of frequent debate and discussion. Despite Turkey's many geopolitical advantages and its citizens' aspirations for EU membership, several factors have put this dream on hold.

Geopolitical Advantages and Industrial Growth

Turkey possesses a multitude of advantages that make it an attractive potential EU member, including its geographical location, intensive industrial, technological, agricultural, and cultural growth. President Emmanuel Macron has recently pushed for a new approach, advocating for the affiliation status that Turkey could attain, similar to that of the old concentric circles idea, which aims to ensure all countries are on board. This idea is an attempt to reinvigorate the concept of core Europe while including Turkey as a key player.

Another interesting point is that Turkey is likely to be the only country in the world to receive double invitations, both to the EU and BRICS, as an active partner of exceptional honour and friendship. This unique position highlights Turkey's global importance. However, it is not etched in stone, and the future may present unforeseen factors that could redefine Turkey's role in international organizations.

Challenges and Concerns

Despite Turkey's advantages, several challenges and concerns remain. Critics argue that Turkey cannot be considered a European country. They highlight three main reasons: human rights issues, the lack of democracy, and the current government's dictatorial tendencies under President Erdogan.

Human Rights and Democracy

There is a strong belief that Turkey's lack of respect for human rights and the existence of a de facto dictatorship under Erdogan's leadership are major deterrents to its EU membership. Bulletin Voici from France highlights the rapid population growth in Turkey and suggests that allowing Turkey to join would potentially give it too much control over Europe, similar to what happened in Vienna in 200 years ago.

Such concerns are not new. Since the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923, Turkey has never been seen as meeting EU criteria for membership. There are even more European connections with countries in the Caucasus than with Turkey, further underlining the difficulty in integrating Turkey into the EU.

Future Global Tensions and EU Survival

Looking beyond Turkey's membership, there are broader geopolitical concerns within the EU itself. Global trends suggest that countries may increasingly become more fragmented, potentially weakening the EU's strength and stability. This could lead to the potential fragmentation of the union, with some member states potentially deciding to leave the EU in the next 20 years.

It is noteworthy that Greece, a current EU member, and Armenia, a non-EU member, might be particularly affected. The long-standing alliance through NATO since the early 1950s has formed a strong bond between Turkey and Greece. However, recent tensions and geopolitical shifts might trigger an alarm in both nations, especially if Turkey's EU membership prospects continue to be uncertain.

Conclusion

While Turkey's geopolitical advantages and unique position make it an invaluable asset in both the EU and BRICS, the road to EU membership remains fraught with challenges. The EU and its member states must carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages before considering Turkey's inclusion. The future holds many uncertainties, but one thing is clear: Turkey's path to EU membership is complex and fraught with obstacles.