Will Trump Actually Attack Iranian Heritage Sites? Would Russia Defend Tehran?

Unlikely

It is extremely unlikely that the United States (U.S.) or Russia would engage in a direct military conflict over Iran's heritage sites. Russia, in particular, is not seeking to start World War III over Iran's cultural landmarks.

No Need for Provocation

Political rhetoric often includes aggressive language intended to deter or threaten, rather than to indicate actual military action. It is a strategic tactic to make one's nation appear strong and decisive. However, nations like Iran have a history of conflict with the U.S. for decades, and this fact should be acknowledged.

Dealing with adversaries often requires standing firm, but there comes a time when action is necessary. Trump took a firm stance when necessary, as evidenced by his actions against leaders who have committed heinous acts.

Military Targets and War Crimes

Historically, cultural heritage sites are generally not considered legitimate military targets in conflict. The Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict with Regulations for the Application of the Convention (Hague Convention) outlines that cultural property should be protected during warfare. Any action that would destroy or damage such sites would be considered a war crime.

Furthermore, targeting cultural heritage sites would not contribute to military victory and could backfire, creating a consensus against the aggressor, including public opinion in the target country and the international community. A military action aimed at these sites could also have severe diplomatic consequences and would likely be highly unpopular within the U.S. and internationally.

Immediate Impeachment for Ego-Based Attacks?

There is valid concern that attacking cultural heritage sites would be a politically motivated act driven by personal rather than strategic interests, which could be grounds for impeachment. However, such actions are not inevitable and can be prevented through sound leadership and understanding of the consequences.

In any conflict, it is crucial to recognize that both tangible and intangible assets are protected by international law. Any attack on cultural heritage would be a violation of this law and a grave mistake from a diplomatic and strategic standpoint.

Skeptical of Loyal Support

If the U.S. were to launch an attack on Iranian heritage sites, it is likely that not all Americans would support such a move. There may be Americans who recognize the value of preserving cultural heritage and would oppose such actions. The U.S. government would need to justify and manage public opinion carefully to ensure domestic and international support for any military operation.

In summary, the likelihood of an attack on Iranian heritage sites is low due to the potential adverse international consequences and the legal protections afforded to cultural property. Any military action of this nature would need to be well-justified and supported by a solid strategic rationale that prioritizes military objectives and international law.