Introduction

Can the Russian Army Win?

Yes, it is now clear that the situation in Ukraine is not in Russia's favor. The capture of Avdeevka marked a significant turning point, and the implications are profound. Part of the Ukrainian territory is already under Russian control, and this is likely to continue expanding if Russia's objectives are not met.

Strategic Necessity and Historical Context

Russia's perseverance is rooted in history and necessity. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that the conflict is not a choice but a necessity. The war in Ukraine serves as a means to achieve geopolitical goals. Russia views this as a 'good' war, a defensive and justified action designed to protect its interests and sovereignty.

Financial Warfare and Military Efforts

Reports suggest that there are approximately 300 billion dollars worth of Russian assets available to be seized around the world. Currently, this amount could sustain Ukraine's military for about five years. However, it does not necessarily translate into a military victory. Russia has only partially used its full military potential, and despite the western support, Ukraine is showing resilience.

The Current Battlefield Situation

Donbas and Crimea: The Russian advance in the Donbas region is already substantial, with Kramatorsk and Slovyansk being within range of attacks. If these strongholds fall, Russian control over the Donbas is highly probable. Victory does not necessarily mean a complete military takeover; the capture of key regions such as Donbas and Crimea aligns with Russia's objectives.

Conquest of Eastern Ukraine: The war's outcome may be more about territorial control rather than a full conquest of Ukraine. For example, the Russian army might aim to control everything east of the Dnipro River, which would require a significant military commitment and time. The cities around Zaporizhzhia could be within reach, but they would face fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces. Symbolic Targets: The Russian military might struggle to seize strategic cities like Kharkiv. These cities are close to Kyiv and can be easily reinforced, presenting a formidable challenge for the Russian armed forces.

Conclusion

The concept of 'winning' the war is not black and white. Russia may view victory as achieving specific territorial gains, such as the Donbas and Crimea, rather than a complete military defeat of Ukraine. The war's duration and outcomes will depend on several factors, including continuous geopolitical support from the West and the Russian military's ability to sustain long-term operations.

In conclusion, the path to victory in the Ukraine conflict is complex and multifaceted. While the Russian military has made progress, the broader stakes and the geopolitical implications will determine the ultimate outcome.