Introduction

The question raised in your title is indeed fascinating and speculative. To explore the likelihood of a Jewish state in Palestine under different historical scenarios, we must delve into the historical context and the collaborative efforts that led to the establishment of the State of Israel.

A Proto-State Well Before Nazism

By the early 1930s, the Jewish communities in the British Mandate already possessed a proto-state infrastructure. Established in 1920, the Jewish National Council served as a pseudo-government of elected officials. The Jewish Agency for Israel functioned as the executive branch, while the Histadrut (General Federation of Jewish Workers in the Land of Israel) served as the national labor organization. Additionally, the Keren Hayesod provided financial support to these organizations.

These developments were years before the Nazi regime's rise to power. The idea of a Jewish state was deeply rooted in the collective Jewish consciousness, even before the horrors of the Holocaust.

Creation of the Jewish State in Palestine

The establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine traces back to the Treaty of Sèvres of 1920, which included Article 95 that granted Palestine as a "national home for the Jewish people." This historical document preceded the rise of Nazism and the Holocaust by decades.

When Palestine achieved independence in 1948, it officially became the State of Israel. This timeline illustrates that the foundation for a Jewish state in Palestine was well-established long before these pivotal historical events.

International Support and Immigration

Even without a formal state, the Zionist movement made significant strides in establishing a viable Jewish presence in the region. By the 1930s, the Zionist movement was well underway for nearly half a century, driven by the secular desire for Jews to return to their historical homeland.

The development of infrastructure, education, and economic opportunities in the land was fostering an environment that was increasingly attractive to potential Jewish immigrants. Despite the challenges posed by the British Mandate, there was a growing awareness that restrictive immigration policies were counterproductive, ultimately leading to the establishment of the State of Israel.

Global Jewry and Zionist Aspirations

Jews from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) were just as eager to return to Israel and capitalize on the new opportunities as their Western counterparts. The idea of blending a return to one's ancestral homeland with the promise of a better future would have likely drawn many Mizrahi Jews to immigrate to the emerging Jewish state at a similar rate to their Western brethren.

Other countries, such as the UAE, saw the futility of maintaining conflict among local communities and eventually relaxed their policies to attract global immigration. The pressure to liberalize immigration policies would have likely persisted, even with a different historical timeline.

Conclusion

Speculating about 'what could have been' is indeed a fascinating exercise in history. However, the current reality is that Israel, as a homeland for Israelis, stands as a testament to the aspirations and struggles of the Jewish people. The establishment of the State of Israel in Palestine in the early 20th century was not merely a political decision but a fulfillment of deep-rooted historical and cultural aspirations.

Shalom.