Will FARC and Cuba Invade Brazil in Retaliation if Dilma Rousseff is Impeached?

This hypothetical scenario has been making the rounds, with some suggesting that if former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff faces impeachment, FARC or Cuba might launch a retaliatory invasion. However, such notions are deeply rooted in misunderstandings and underestimations of the military capabilities and political realities of involved parties.

The Numbers Game

Let's start by looking at the numbers. Cuba, with a population of about 11.2 million and a military force of around 90,000, has a modest navy comprising 12 coastal defense crafts. Brazil, on the other hand, boasts a population of over 205 million, a military force of 330,000, with 1.8 million in reserve. Brazil also has a formidable navy, including an aircraft carrier.

The FARC Primer

Turning to FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), the reality is different. Once a force of up to 18,000, FARC is now down to around 6,000 members. Their claim to fame lies more in their strategic withdrawal which has led to peace negotiations with the Colombian government.

Myth vs. Reality

The question of whether FARC or Cuba would pose a military threat to Brazil is laughable. Both have long since ceased to constitute a serious military threat. FARC lacks the necessary resources and capability to mount a serious military campaign, let alone invade Brazil, even if they were so inclined.

Cuba, though with a larger standing military force of about 90,000, also struggles against international sanctions and economic pressures. They would not have the resources or political support to launch an invasion off their coast.

Strategic Implications

One can hypothesize, however, that if Brazil were to significantly reduce its military budget and scale back border patrols, particularly in the Amazon, FARC might seek to increase their covert presence there. They could view this as an opportunity to reestablish a presence in what was once their operational territory.

The Role of International Bodies

Regardless of military implications, organizations such as the Foro de S?o Paulo (S?o Paulo Forum) are more likely to engage in indirect methods to counteract a Brazil under new leadership. They may attempt to undermine the new government through various means, including propaganda and political maneuvering.

Conclusion

In summary, the idea of an invasion by FARC or Cuba in retaliation for Dilma Rousseff's impeachment is entirely unfounded. The tactical capabilities of both groups do not align with the formidable defense mechanisms of Brazil. Instead, watch for more covert moves if budget cuts significantly impact Brazil's border security efforts.