Turkeys Role in the Iran-Saudi Arabia Proxy War: A Strategic Analysis

Turkey's Role in the Iran-Saudi Arabia Proxy War: A Strategic Analysis

Introduction

Turkey's geopolitical position is intricately woven into the fabric of regional conflicts, particularly the ongoing Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy war. In this context, Turkey’s alignment with Saudi Arabia, its historical ties with Iran, and its unique role as a NATO member create a complex web of relationships that significantly impact the region's stability.

Understanding the Context

As a member of NATO, Turkey is obligated to defend other member states. Iran's actions towards countries like Saudi Arabia and its regional ambitions make it a direct rival, ensuring that any confrontation with Iran is not solely an ideological battle but a potential threat to regional peace and stability. Given Iran's internal issues, an attack on a NATO member is disregarded as a clear provocation that could escalate into a broader conflict.

Historical and Current Dynamics

During the Syrian War, Turkey’s alliances with partners like Saudi Arabia and Qatar shifted the dynamics of its relationship with Iran. While Iran was once admired by Turkish conservatives for its anti-American stance and theocracy, the conflict revealed deeper sectarian and ideological differences. Iran’s support for the Assad regime in Syria and its alliance with separatist movements in Turkey further tarnished its image in the eyes of Turkish conservatives.

On the other hand, Turkey's relationship with Saudi Arabia became more enforced during the Syrian War. The Saudi government supported the Syrian opposition, aligning Turkey with the Sunni-led coalition against the Assad regime. However, this relationship was not entirely without its problems. The narrative propagated by the then AKP government, emphasizing a sectarian and divisive rhetoric, alienated many Turkish citizens who questioned the righteousness of such support.

Turkey's Strategic Shift

At present, Turkey is experiencing a significant policy shift. The country aims to recalibrate its relationships with both Saudi Arabia and Iran to ensure a stable and balanced regional environment. This shift is driven by various strategic considerations, including the need for closer economic ties with Arab states, the desire to maintain economic trade with Iran, and the pursuit of a more inclusive regional political landscape.

Turkey's role in the Iran-Saudi proxy war is often viewed through the lens of aligning with Saudi Arabia. However, this alignment is not purely altruistic. Turkey is seeking to gain support from other Arab countries for its model of governance, which is widely recognized as a progressive and tolerant version of Islam. Turkey believes that both the Saudi and Iranian models are threats to its secular democracy. Saudi Arabia, with its strict Wahhabist interpretations, is seen as too conservative, while Iran's Shia dominance is perceived as ideologically similar to Turkey's historical enemies like Armenia.

Turkey’s Broader Geopolitical Considerations

Despite this alignment, Turkey still needs Saudi Arabia, given its significance in the Muslim world and the economic benefits derived from Saudi oil. However, Turkey’s relationship with Iran remains complex. Cultural connections notwithstanding, the support of Iran for Armenia and its involvement in the Kurdish conflict complicate Turkey’s stance. Nevertheless, Iran is crucial for Turkey in terms of balancing the nuclear program, maintaining military power, and facilitating trade with Central Asia.

Conclusion

The outcome of Turkey's policy shift is uncertain, but it is hoped that it will contribute to a more stable regional environment. The relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran will continue to evolve, shaped by political, economic, and ideological considerations. For the sake of humanity, it is imperative that these relationships are managed carefully to prevent any further escalation of conflict in the region.