Turkey’s Strategic Interests in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

The ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has attracted significant attention from international observers, particularly with respect to Turkey's strategic interests. Turkey and Azerbaijan are not merely two separate countries; according to the ex-president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, they share deep-rooted historical and cultural ties.

Historical Roots and Military Relations

Turkey was the first nation to recognize Azerbaijan after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, marking the beginning of a strong and lasting relationship. The strategic alliance between the two nations is not limited to political recognition alone. Erdogan, the current President of Turkey, has sought to enhance Turkey's influence in the Muslim world, seeing it as a means to bolster his position as a global leader.

Under Erdogan's leadership, Turkey has actively supported Azerbaijan in its military endeavors. Turkish military training and equipment have played a crucial role in enhancing Azerbaijan's defense capabilities. Additionally, Turkey has a significant voice in Azerbaijan's military strategy, thereby consolidating its influence in the region.

Communal and Economic Interests

The war in the Caucasus has deep communal roots. Azerbaijan, being a secular Muslim-majority state, has faced criticism for allowing terrorists to fight on their behalf. Critics argue that this could undermine Azerbaijan's secular values, as these conflicts are often framed as a battle of Islam versus Christianity.

From a geopolitical perspective, Azerbaijan's vast oil and mineral resources, coupled with its strategic location, make it a critical asset for Turkey. By supporting Azerbaijan, Turkey aims to establish a pan-Turkic alliance from Turkey to Kyrgyzstan, thereby strengthening its geopolitical power.

Economic and Strategic Imperatives

Turkey’s primary interest in the conflict lies in its desire to secure the oil and gas trade route connecting Central Asia to Turkey. This route has been under threat from Russia, which has sought to undermine it.

One such route is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a crucial conduit for carrying up to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the Mediterranean. Turkey and the United States act as guarantors of this pipeline, ensuring its smooth operation.

Further, Turkey aims to include oil production and reserves from Central Asian countries through a pipeline built along the Caspian Bypass. This would effectively reroute oil and gas production, thereby reducing Russia's influence in the region. As a result, Turkey seeks to secure the Ceyhan Port, which could potentially supply over 15% of the world’s oil and large quantities of gas to Europe directly. This development would impact Russia's economic significance to the European Union and weaken its position in global energy markets.

By establishing a strong presence in Azerbaijan and expanding its influence in Central Asia, Turkey aims to introduce Central Asian players as significant actors in world affairs. This strategy could effectively surround and isolate Russia from a substantial portion of the world’s energy resources in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Turkey's strategic interests in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan are multifaceted. From a historical and cultural perspective, the close relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan is evident. However, the primary motivator for Turkish support lies in its desire to secure a strategic oil and gas trade route and enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.

As the conflict continues, it is crucial to understand the broader strategic landscape and the potential long-term implications for regional stability and global energy dynamics.