The Political and Military Consequences of Greek or Turkish Invasion of Cyprus

The Historical Context

The Cyprus issue, with its origins dating back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, has been a contentious point of contention between Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus. The ongoing conflict has roots in geopolitical tensions and historical events, many of which have far-reaching consequences for international relations.

The Greek-Turkish War of 1996

The Cyprus dispute resulted in a significant escalation with the Greek-Turkish War of 1996, which took place in Imia (also known as Kardak). An island in the Aegean Sea, Imia/Kardak became a symbolic battleground for Greek and Turkish territorial claims. In the winter of 1995-96, Greece and Turkey engaged in a fierce standoff, leading to a heavy Turkish military presence in the area.

The Geopolitical Turn: 1996-2004

Following the Greek victory in the Imia conflict, France became deeply involved in the negotiations concerning Cyprus's EU membership. However, the Greek-French alliance, established in the context of the 1996 Olympic Games, played a crucial role in influencing these negotiations. The Olympic bid controversy in Atlanta led to significant geopolitical changes, including the US participation in the Gulf War of 1990, which eventually influenced the resolution of the Cyprus conflict.

The French nuclear military defense and negotiation strategies significantly impacted Turkey's relations with the European Union. The French missiles aimed at Turkey during the Cypriot negotiations laid the groundwork for Cyprus entering the EU on May 1, 2004. This move only infuriated the Turkish deep state, leading to the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001.

Misguided Military Interventions

The Turkish deep state's response to the Cypriot entry into the EU was a series of misguided military interventions. The September 11 attacks on New York and Washington DC were not only retaliation against France but also a bid to halt the EU's progress. This led to the United States and the British government's unilateral actions, including the Iraq War of 2003 and the Afghanistan War of 2001, in an attempt to align with their strategic interests.

The Quagmire of Military Intervention

The resulting military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq proved to be a profound foreign policy disaster. The prolonged quagmire, becoming the world's longest-running military intervention, created a significant geopolitical disruption. This military intervention has had lasting effects on international relations and the stability of the Middle East region.

The Political Aftermath

The entry of Cyprus into the EU in 2004 was followed by geopolitical shifts that affected the United Kingdom. The BREXIT referendum in 2016, which officially implemented the UK's withdrawal from the European Union in 2020, was in part a response to the EU's evolving geopolitical landscape, especially in light of the Cyprus issue.

Conclusion

The Greek-Turkish conflict over Cyprus continues to have significant geopolitical and military consequences. The events of the 1990s and early 2000s serve as a reminder of the complex interplay between historical disputes and international politics.

References

Halliday, F. (2002). Asia without America: American Decline and the Greater Middle East. London: Penguin. Karakayl?, G. (2007). Turkey and the Cyprus Conflict. Political Science Quarterly, 122(4), 629-656. Rothley, K. (2006). The Manchester School and the Cypriot Crisis: Unintended Consequences Across Four Decades. International Studies Review, 8(2), 158-178.