The Shift in Saudi Arabia's Support: Why India is Losing Ground

Recent diplomatic visits and major investments have shown a significant shift in Saudi Arabia's support and relations with India. A stark contrast in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's recent visits to both nations highlights a shift in favor of Pakistan. While he invested negligibly in India, his substantial investment in Pakistan indicates a marked change in geopolitical priorities.

Historical Context and Current Trends

Historically, Saudi Arabia has maintained a generally positive relationship with India, attributable to ongoing economic and trade collaborations. The Saudi Arabian monarchs, particularly King Abdullah, have reinforced this congenial stance, expressing sentiments such as, “India is my second home,” a strong indicator of Saudi Arabia's affinity for India. However, recent events and shifting dynamics are influencing Saudi Arabia's decision-making.

India and Saudi Arabia: Oil and Economic Cooperation

India ranks among the top trading partners for Saudi Arabia, and the country is one of the top seven trading partners of India. The relationship has been strengthened through oil and gas trade, with Saudi Arabia being the largest supplier of oil to India. Additionally, India has been a significant investor in the Gulf, with its ONGC Videsh acquiring a 10% stake in an offshore oil concession in Abu Dhabi. India's economic presence in the region is significant, recognizing the importance of Middle Eastern resources.

The Role of Prime Minister Modi

Under the leadership of Prime Minster Narendra Modi, India has established closer ties with young Gulf leaders, including the Crown Princes of Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia. Modi's visit to Saudi Arabia last week coincided with India's decision to abrogate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, a move that Pakistan has vehemently opposed. The internationalization of the Kashmir issue has created a complex backdrop for India-Saudi relations.

Pakistan’s Geopolitical Maneuvering

Despite the efforts of Pakistan to internationalize the Kashmir issue, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a pragmatic ally for India. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Imran Khan's visit to Riyadh and the traditionally close Saudi-Pakistan ties have not hindered Saudi Arabia's stance. Saudi Arabia has signaled an understanding of India's concerns, particularly on the Kashmir issue, and has been cautious about Pakistan’s attempts to escalate the crisis.

Future Outlook and Economic Opportunities

The new interest in strengthening India-Saudi cooperation comes against a backdrop of historical indifference. The future of Saudi Arabia's economic model is at stake, and the kingdom seeks new partnerships like India. Significant investments in India, such as the one announced shortly after India's move on Kashmir, demonstrate the economic benefits for both nations.

Conclusion

The shift in Saudi Arabia's support from India to Pakistan is a strategic move driven by economic interests and geopolitical considerations. As India continues to gain significant economic traction in the region, it is essential to understand the complex dynamics affecting these relationships. Saudi Arabia's pragmatic approach towards India, despite previous close ties with Pakistan, underscores the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Asia.