Introduction

On the eve of Victory in Europe (V-E) Day in 1945, the fate of Berlin loomed as a complex issue between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies. This article aims to explore a hypothetical scenario in which the Western Allies reneged on their agreement to allow the Soviets to take Berlin. We will discuss the implications and the strategic mindset of Stalin during this critical period.

USSR's Position Post-Victory

The Soviet Union was in a delicate position following the conclusion of the Second World War. Exhausted and mindful of the balance of power, the USSR had already achieved more than initially anticipated. Given its weakened state, Moscow was not inclined to engage in another military conflict, especially over the dispute surrounding Berlin.

The Western Allies'' Domestic Territory Occupation

Contrary to common perception, the Western Allies held more German territory than initially allocated under the pre-planned occupation zones. The Americans had ventured into what was intended to be the Soviet sector, capturing cities such as Leipzig. If the powers retained the territories they had occupied, East Germany would have been significantly smaller. The symbolic importance of West Berlin was more compelling for the West, which was determined not to let the Communists control Germany.

Soviet Territory and Influence

Another factor was the significant expansion of Soviet territory, particularly the acquisition of parts of Saxony, Thuringia, and other regions that were supposed to be in the Soviet zone. The map below highlights the areas that were initially part of the Soviet zone but were later occupied by the Western Allies. If the USSR had retained these regions, the political landscape of Europe would have been dramatically different.

Stalin's Preparedness

Realizing the potential for conflict, Stalin seemed prepared to assert the Red Army's dominance. He anticipated that the Western Allies might attempt to retain control over the territories they had occupied and was ready to challenge them if necessary. According to some sources, Stalin was prepared to engage the Red Army against the Western forces if the agreement was broken.

Conclusion

Even in the hypothetical scenario of the Western Allies failing to honor their agreement, the Soviet Union had already secured its position in Berlin. Stalin would likely have handled the situation pragmatically, stating, "I will deal with them later." The primary focus would have been on maintaining the strategic advantages the Soviet Union had already achieved.

Further Reading

For a deeper exploration of this topic, “Berlin: The Downfall 1945” is a comprehensive and insightful resource. This book delves into the intricate political and military strategies employed by Stalin and the Western Allies during the final days of the war in Europe.